UFC 104 - Machida vs. Rua

ADAMS CURRENT PICKS: 50% Correct

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua - MACHIDA

Have you ever seen Invincible with Bruce Willis? Great movie. There’s a villain known as “Mr. Glass” that has really week bones. Shogun is the Mr. Glass of MMA. He’s blown out his knee twice and snapped his arm once. That’s a lot of injury and I think it’s messed with his training and career.

This is an interesting matchup and not a ‘runaway’, but I’m definitely going with Machida on this one.

The one thing that worries me about Machida’s technique is that often, when he’s in tight, in his allusiveness he looks away or down, away from the punches and that’s when a fighter can get surprised.

Everyone’s seen what odd angles can do to a fighter with Machida and Shogun actually brings a lot of this to the game as well. Whenever I’ve watched him (or his brother Ninja) I’ve always found them to be very sloppy, though a great kickboxers. Even when I watched the Chute Box instructional with Shogun and Ninja I was surprised that, even while throwing combos in slow motion to illustrate their techniques, that they didn’t have good balance and looked sloppy. All of this smack talk about the ‘slop’ isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Often when someone new to fighting spars against me, they often catch me with some stuff because there kicks and punches don’t look like everyone else and that can surprise you. Their lack of technique also results in a lack of power but the Chute Boxe guys have power.

Shogun has also appears to have finally turned back into a top fighter since the demise of the Japanese PRIDE promotion. When almost all (particularly the Brazilians) came back from fighting in Japan where “vitamins” (that’s code for steroids) are a way of life their abilities mysteriously dropped off a cliff. These “vitamins” are tested over here and you could see a change immediately when they came over to compete in America.

Notable fighters that showed this include: Shogun Rua, Ninja Rua, Wanderlie Silva, Big Nog, and Cro-Cop to name a few.

I remember being so impressed with the Rua brothers back in the day in particular because they would just punch, punch, punch, punch and keep punching for the whole fight and never got tired. They would strike on their feet, strike in the clinch, strike in the guard and they were relentless. When they first crossed over from PRIDE they gassed out immediately and haven’t been the same fighters since.

SO! Long story short, Rua could surprise everyone but I think he doesn’t have the skills to pull off a win. Machida is not only un-orthodox in his striking (as is Rua) but he is VERY illusive which is something Rua lacks. Rua’s chance is if something happens early but all advantages go to Machida, including the 5 round fight.

(Was he in the Goonies? It looks like he's doing the truffle-shuffle)

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell - ROTHWELL

This is a tough one. I was really impressed when Cain took a giant shot from Kongo and, after letting his back-bone slide, attacked and got a take-down and took the win.

I also really like Rothwell. When Andrei Arlovski was let go from the UFC and went to fight for Affliction everyone saw the best Andrei fight against Ben and Ben took the fight to Andrie until he got TKO`d in the third round. It was a great fight and Andrei’s performance was so good that he was given a huge standing ovation after his fight with Ben, which surprised the hell out of me. Ben’s also defeated a fat Ricco Rodriguez (former UFC Champion) and I think he’ll take this fight.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson vs. Spencer “The King” Fisher - FISHER

I’ve found Joe Daddy to be a hot and cold fighter. He was definitely on the ball with his latest fight against Nate Diaz. I’m going with Fisher on this one though. I like Fisher and think he’s got great heart and always bring his game and fights hard. There’s a chance of Joe’s wrestling pulling off a decision win based on control and takedowns but Fisher will control the stand up and I think will stay out of any submissions.

http://www.spartanmmaacademy.com