UFC 109 - Breakdown and Fight Picks

Matt “The Terror” Serra vs. Frank “Twinkle Toes” TriggHere’s another couple of older guys on this card and it could really go either way. If I had to pick a way though, I would go with Serra, and here’s my reasoning.
As I’ve said before I really like Trigg, I think he’s a smart fighter. He’s done commentary for years and I’ve always been surprised at how well he knows both MMA and Kickboxing (he use to do commentary for The Fight Network when I worked there). I’m starting to think that thinking is his problem.
I’ve met many fighters over the years (mostly in gyms) that know so much and are amazing at what they do, but when they get into the ring they’re thinking too much instead of reacting. These athletes make great coaches because they have a lot of great knowledge to teach but they just weren’t able to put it together for themselves.
Serra has also never been submitted and Trigg won’t be the one to catch him. Another point is that Serra has only been knocked out twice and Trigg’s never been shown to have heavy hands. Trigg does have TKO’s but have been from ground and pound/ref stoppage TKO’s primarily because he’s a strong wrestler and able to control guys.
Short answer, SERRA! ... it’ll probably go to a decision... whaaaann!!

Chael Sonnen vs. Nate “The Great” MarquardtI see Great things in this match up and Marquardt walking away with the win. Marquardt is a warrior. He cut his teeth training at the Pancrase gym in Japan where tradition reigned. Winners were praised and serviced within the gym and losers made up the cleaning crew and were everyon’s bitch. I’ve read about Marquardt’s road and it was full of discipline and certainly a road that makes a fighter strong.
One great thing I like is fighters that evolve and Nate has definitely been great at that.
When he came from Pancrase he was a very hyped force because of his champion status there but in the UFC he was VERY boring. He’s evolved a lot and since ripped off three KO’s in a row and I think he’ll make it 4 on Saturday night.
A couple notes on Sonnen; he’s been a boring fighter in the past and is still a boring fighter. He trains at Team Quest and looks like the classic (original) Team Quest Style of boring grinder that lays on a fighter, using his wrestling skills just to grind out a win.
Marquardt will take it.

Mike “Quick” Swick vs. Paulo ThiagoThiago will win via gun shot. Thiago is in the Brazilian Special Forces guy and that gives him some of the scariness of Cro-Cop. I think this will be a great competitive fight but I’ve gotta go with the guy that has the 12 and 1 record and is use to being shot at with guns.

Rolles Gracie vs Joey “Mexicutioner” Beltran
The Gracie family comes home and it’ll be a warm welcome. I haven’t seen either of these guys before (Gracie is 3-0, all via submission) but I’m going with Gracie. Beltran appears to only be a slugger and in classic UFC style the Gracie will win in that kind of a fight.
Interestingly, Beltran is coming off a KO win against Huston Alexander who got fired from the UFC in December after a crappy showing against Kimbo. ... poor Houston.


For the Mark Coleman vs. Randy Couture pick, I’ll be on York Region’s “Day Time” this Friday talking about the event and I’ll post later that day.My 100% record of picking the main-event winners since September 2009 is still going strong and I don’t think Saturday nights fight will change anything!



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